Diplomacy Is the Way Forward

What are the consequences of a military strike on Syria?

Ed Webb

By former diplomat Ed Webb, assistant professor of political science and international studies

First, we have to be very cautious about predictions. Military interventions produce uncertain outcomes, and the situation in Syria is unusually complex. It has evolved from peaceful protests to an armed uprising to a regional proxy war. But some things we can say with a reasonable degree of confidence. A limited strike is unlikely to shift the strategic situation in the country. The Syrian government and civilians have been preparing for such a strike, meaning it is having an effect before it takes place. But this can only be a relatively minor event in a long conflict.

Unless things change significantly, there is a realistic prospect of many years of bloody civil war. The way out of this can only go via diplomacy involving all the significant actors, including Russia, Iran, the Gulf states and Syria's neighbors. If the U.S. and its allies do the right kind of diplomatic groundwork now—ahead of a strike—and can gain broad acceptance of the need for a limited military response to chemical weapons use, including at least tacitly from Russia and Iran, then the consequences will be negligible for Syria itself and for the prospects of a diplomatic and political resolution. Absent such preparation, a strike could further complicate an already extremely difficult diplomatic process.

Read more Dickinson faculty perspectives on Syria.

Listen to Professor Webb discuss the situation in Syria on the Life Elsewhere radio program out of Tampa, Fla.

Published September 7, 2013