Dickinson Research Reveals a New Take on NBA Tipoffs
Andrew Scheiner ’25 collaborated with Professor of Mathematics Barry Tesman and Assistant Professor of Data Analytics Eren Bilen to study the influence of the tipoff in NBA games. Photo by Dan Loh.
Student-faculty research suggests that the tipoff might be more significant than previously thought
by Tony Moore
In the world of professional basketball, the opening tipoff is often seen as a ceremonial start to the game, a moment of anticipation before the real action begins. But a research project led by a Dickinson student and two faculty members suggests that the tipoff might be more significant than previously thought—offering insights into how it can impact the outcome of NBA games.
13,000,000 Events
“As a big basketball fan, the intensity of the players preparing for the jump ball at the start—and other times—of a game seemed strange to me: How much importance could there really be on winning it?” says Professor of Mathematics Barry Tesman—who is also Dickinson’s Theodore & Catherine Mathias Chair in Mathematics, Computer Science and Quantitative Studies—on the project’s origin.
The research, conducted by Andrew Scheiner ’25 (computer science, data analytics) in collaboration with Tesman and Assistant Professor of Data Analytics Eren Bilen, delves into the influence of the tipoff on both immediate and long-term game results. Using data from NBA games spanning the 2000-2021 seasons, the team analyzed over 27,000 tipoffs to uncover patterns in game outcomes.
What they discovered challenges common assumptions about the event's influence.
“We were all very torn on what we might possibly discover from this project,” says Scheiner, a sports fan who notes that the play-by-play data had 13 million individual events and was about 3 gigabytes in size. “In hindsight, our research explores whether tipoffs have a statistically significant effect on the outcome of an NBA game or if they are just the same as a coin flip.”
The team’s analysis, which incorporated statistical models using Python and R, found that teams winning the opening tipoff had a 52.8% win rate. Regression analysis suggests that this advantage translates to a 5.6 percentage point higher win probability than if the outcome were purely random. Additionally, teams that won the tipoff scored the first basket 64% of the time—a significant advantage in the early moments of the game.
"Yes, the weight of a single chance event at the start of the game is small compared to everything else that happens throughout," explains Bilen, "but we're capturing more than just the impact of that one event; we are also picking up on factors such as which team comes more prepared to win, or simply wants to win more, both of which raise the likelihood of winning the tipoff and the game. This is a unique finding!"
One of the key insights of the study is the diminishing effect of the tipoff as the game progresses. While its impact is most pronounced at the start, the research also found that the tipoff’s influence continues to play a role in higher-stakes situations, such as overtime games.
“We knew this research could prove to be a beneficial starting point in the investigation on the tipoff event,” Scheiner explained. “With minimal research being done on this event in the past, we were confident that exploring various circumstances and aspects of the game of basketball itself would allow us to make connections to the outcome of any given tipoff.”
Blend of Disciplines
What makes this research particularly compelling is the way it blends data science, mathematics and sports analytics. The research team applied advanced regression analysis to explore how player attributes, like height and vertical leap, might contribute to a team’s success at the tipoff. They also considered broader game contexts, such as playoff games and overtime periods, where the impact of the tipoff could be even more pronounced.
“The research is a great example of using popular data analysis techniques to answer extraordinary sports analytics questions,” says Scheiner, who previously had a data analytics internship with Dickinson’s athletics department. “It’s also the perfect way to showcase the skills learned throughout various curricula at Dickinson.”
And Tesman and Bilen say Scheiner showcased those skills well. "Andrews's majors in data and CS, his minor in math, and his enthusiasm for sports made him the perfect student researcher," says Tesman. "He is also an excellent student and hardworking.”
"Andrew is a sharp and committed student and has strong coding skills," says Bilen. "I can see that he is very passionate about the data he spent so much time analyzing, and combining his passion with hard work and technical skills is what makes him succeed."
The study has already garnered attention, with the team submitting their findings for publication in the journal Scatterplot. The positive feedback they received from the journal’s editor has spurred the team to refine their work further, with future research in the pipeline.
For Scheiner, this project represents more than just an academic exercise—it’s an opportunity to blend his interest in the game with the technical skills he’s developed at Dickinson—where multidisciplinary projects are the norm.
“This research was an incredible opportunity for a student and two professors from different academic fields to collaborate on a sports project with an amazing story,” says Scheiner. “No matter the impact of the findings on the tipoff—which were, of course, very informative and prosperous—we were able to show how skills learned in the Dickinson curriculum played a key role in answering a unique research question in the growing field of sports analytics.”
Ultimately, the research emphasizes the importance of examining overlooked moments in sports and finding new ways to understand their impact. The tipoff, as it turns out, is far from trivial.
TAKE THE NEXT STEPS
Published January 31, 2025